For Grupo Financiero Monex, the shares of Grupo México Transportes (GMXT), which are traded on the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV), project a margin of appreciation of just 2% for the remainder of the year, close to the estimated yield of 4.5 % for the S & P / BMV IPyC, the main index of the BMV.
When starting coverage for the company, Monex analysts established a target price of 29 pesos (US $ 1.5) per share for 2018, with the recommended maintance.
The titles of the railway transport company are currently quoted at 28.50 pesos (US $ 1.4) for each one. In their debut they sold at a price of 31.50 pesos (US $ 1.6) per unit and at current levels accumulate a fall of 9.5%.
The manager of stock market analysis of Grupo Financiero Monex, Fernando Bolaños explained that the target price and the assigned recommendation is based on the projections on the future growth expected from the issuer, which will be supported, in part, by the results of the subsidiary Florida East Cost Railway, as well as an estimated increase of 7.9% in the total cargo volume.
The financial firm estimates sales and operating flow of the issuer will reach an increase of 13.0% and 7.7%, respectively, compared to what it reached in 2017. Increases will be driven mainly by an increase in transport prices and in the increase in the volume transported.
For the next five years, they estimate that sales and Ebitda will grow at a compound annual rate (CAGR) of 8.4% and 7.6% respectively, driven by the dynamism of the economy of Mexico and the United States.
Monex specialists add that the operating efficiencies of the yards and synergies between the Ferromex and Ferrosur operations with Florida East Cost will be decisive in achieving these growth rates.
They emphasize that none of the segments operated by Grupo México Transportes represents more than 30% of its revenues. Agricultural transport has the highest contribution with approximately 27.0% of its sales, followed by Intermodal transport with 12.0%, minerals and automotive with 11.0% each.
GMXT has five subsidiaries, Ferromex, Ferrosur, Intermodal México, Líneas Ferroviarias de México and the US Florida Railway Cost.