The global production of coffee will exceed the demand in 8 million bags of 60 kilos in the cycle 2018/19, said the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its first forecast for the agricultural year, and stressed that the harvests of Brazil and Vietnam will reach record levels.
World coffee production would reach a record high of 171.2 million bags of 60 kilos in 2018/19, compared to a record consumption that is expected to reach 163.2 million bags.
The abundant harvests will increase exports, while global inventories will rebound towards the end of the year to 32.8 million bags, according to the USDA projection in its semi-annual report, which represents the first adjustment to increase in its estimates in four years.
USDA also estimated that the harvest of the world’s largest coffee producer, Brazil, will reach a record high of 60.2 million bags, up from the 50.9 million bags of the 2017/18 season.
Of this volume, about 44.5 would correspond to Arabica coffee, an increase compared to 38.5 million bags of the variety produced in 2017/18. Robusta production in Brazil would reach 15.7 million bags, calculated by USDA, an increase compared to 12.4 million bags in the same period of the previous year.
In Vietnam, the second largest coffee producer in the world, the harvest would reach the historical ceiling of 29.9 million bags in 2018/19, according to USDA estimates, compared to the production of 29.3 million bags of the previous year.
