The United States/Pakistani Rupee (USD/PKR) has been trading in a constant uptrend for the USD and a constant devaluation for the Rupee.
The main reason for the recent drop in the Forex trading for Rupee is the import restrictions easing, which has increased demand for the dollar.
In 2022, Pakistan imposed import restrictions to limit outflows from its foreign reserves. However, the removal of the restriction was a condition for a $3 billion IMF loan.
USD/PKR technical analysis
The USD has been crushing the PKR since 2018. However, the difference began to increase further in late 2021, making the PKR collapse and trade at a historically lowest rate at 299 Rupees for 1 USD.
Typically, when we see such an immediate rise where each step higher is steeper than the last, it typically means that a shift in sentiment is likely to follow.
On the USD/PKR chart, we have an evening star pattern at the recent top, which is a bearish reversal pattern. This means the price is likely to stall from here.
Given there are deep fundamental issues with the Pakistani economy, we need further confirmation in the coming months that the trend has finally shifted.
On the positive side for the rupee, though, Pakistan is taking action to eliminate illegal dollar trades in an effort to fight inflation during a period of low foreign reserves. This has also helped lift the Rupee in the past week.
The Forex Association of Pakistan (FAP) President Malik Bostan claimed that the US dollar could fall to as low as PKR 250 if the crackdown against illegal trades continues. This could be the positive fundamental change for the Rupee that is needed to break the freefall.
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