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Bitcoin ETF approval is ‘news before the news’; Can SEC decision spark a BTC rally?

The anticipation and speculation surrounding the spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval has sparked renewed enthusiasm within the cryptocurrency community. As the regulatory landscape evolves, the pending decision from the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) is being closely observed to determine if it could trigger a significant Bitcoin (BTC) price rally.

In this case, FieryTrading, a crypto trading analyst, in a TradingView post on August 30, highlighted the potential impact of technical indicators and retracement levels in determining whether the pending SEC decision could ignite the anticipated Bitcoin rally. 

Despite acknowledging the positive nature of ETF approval, the analyst remains cautious about an immediate bullish surge, terming the current sentiments as a ‘news before the news’ scenario. 

“I’m not convinced that the bulls will push through. With the ETF not even being approved yet, it’s essentially ‘news before the news’. Sure, it’s good news, but is it enough to start a long-term trend reversal? he posted.  

Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView

The analyst highlighted potential technical barriers to Bitcoin’s rally due to ongoing debates about the impact of a spot ETF on its value. Significantly, the analyst emphasized the essential role of Fibonacci retracement levels in assessing potential price movements alongside the ETF’s influence.

“My target area for the bounce lay between the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements. This area is often an area of strong resistance and will nearly always signal a continuation of the trend if it can hold,” he said.

Key price levels to monitor

Adding complexity, the analyst underscored the 200-week moving average’s importance at approximately $27,500, historically a pivotal level to monitor.

Regarding price projections, FieryTrading noted that achieving the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement could shift the short-term bias to bullish. Currently, the market remains bearish.

The analyst highlighted the crucial 0.382 retracements around $27,150, suggesting a bullish stock market could drive Bitcoin into an upward breakout. Impending macro and ETF news add uncertainty, leading the analyst to caution traders to stay alert.

The Bitcoin spot ETF debate gained renewed attention after Grayscale won a lawsuit against the SEC, which initially rejected their application to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to an ETF.

Grayscale sued the SEC in June 2022 after the agency denied their attempt to turn their flagship bitcoin fund (GBTC) into an ETF. Grayscale’s goal was to establish an ETF backed by actual Bitcoins, not derivatives.

This potential approval is anticipated to boost Bitcoin’s value. Notably, the cryptocurrency market, in general, surged when news emerged that investment giant BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF. 

Bitcoin price analysis

The court’s decision prompted a short-term Bitcoin rally following a period of inactivity. By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $27,222, down about 0.6% for the day but up nearly 3% for the week.

Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold

Despite these gains, Bitcoin continues to hover below the $30,000 mark, a familiar territory in 2023.

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.

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